Economics and similar, for the sleep-deprived

Does anyone have any idea what might be done about the pointless blob of white space above this paragraph? It seems to be resistant to all my efforts. Update haha, it succumbed.


Friday, July 30, 2010

 
Once more unto the paddock

Apparently a salary schedule for the Afghan security forces was in the Wikileaks dump, meaning that once more, the "Taliban pay more than NATO" idea is getting a canter out. (See discussion here (comments) and here (comments).)

At least this time there's recognition that you can't compare the salaries like for like (I'd also note that as far as I can tell from their reputation, the job-related income of an Afghan policeman is a lot bigger than his salary). But the basic problem is that the Taliban aren't like an army, they don't pay like an army and in general the economic relationship is not one that's sensibly analysed by comparison to a monthly wage. The idea that you can bid up the wage of casual labour so that the Taliban can't afford it just isn't going to work.

Edit: "Afghan", not "Afghani", see comments. I got this right once and wrong once, showing that I just wasn't paying attention.
posted by the management 7/30/2010 03:33:00 AM 9 comments
 
Wikicide

Err yes. Although government spokesmen should always be given a sceptical hearing when they say "revealing this information will cost lives", it's clearly not OK to just bellyflop a load of information about identifiable individuals onto the Web without checking through it to make sure you're not putting someone's life at risk. I frankly don't understand what Assange thought he was playing at and Charli Carpenter is right to say that the journalists working with him ought to have put their foot down. Nick Davies is usually a total mensch, but he really screwed up on this.
posted by the management 7/30/2010 02:38:00 AM 7 comments

Thursday, July 29, 2010

 
Is it me, or is this (while quite cool) not puzzling at all?

"Sailing" directly downwind, faster than the wind speed.

It's a cool vehicle, but there is no puzzle or paradox here, and it is not sailing downwind. It is powered by a propellor/windmill, the movement of which is perpendicular to the wind. A propellor is not a sail; in as much as the blades are analogous to the sails of a windmill wings of a bird, they're moving perpendicular to the wind, not parallel to it, and there's nothing particularly odd or counterintuitive in the idea that you can move faster than the windspeed when you're travelling at an angle to the wind - nearly anyone who sails on their local reservoir has probably done so, on a reach on a light wind day.

I think the thing that is confusing all the amateur physicists and which accounts for the slight does-your-head-in effect of the video is that when you look at the vehicle, you sort of want to consider the plane of rotation of the propellor as if it were a physical object that the wind was blowing against, analogous to a sail. But it isn't; all of the wind power in this thing is perpendicular to the direction of the wind, not directly downwind. It's moving directly downwind under wind power, but it isn't sailing.

Update: Looking at that comments thread, the other thing that confuses people is that the propellor is a propellor, not a windmill - it isn't being turned by the wind. I have made a strikethrough above accordingly.
posted by the management 7/29/2010 11:53:00 PM 5 comments
 
Thursday Music Link

The people who didn't like the disco/classical crossovers last week are going to hate my current Daniel Barenboim/The Wurzels mashup project - "I've got a brand new Hammerklavier".

Derek Bailey plays ballads
posted by the management 7/29/2010 07:28:00 AM 9 comments

Wednesday, July 28, 2010

 
As expected, the word "choice" features heavily in the government's response

... is the throat-clearing equivalent of "you couldn't make it up!" from this prize piece of woo-bashing in the Guardian, via Henry. I don't think it's particularly bacai (although I suspect that I might think otherwise if I had been the civil servant who wrote the rather clever and well-thought-out response it's having a go at), but it's pretty typical of what I consider to be the wrong approach to dealing with homeopathy.

That approach being, of course, roughly that of Monty Python's Bruces sketch - "you're allowed to teach Marx, as long as you make it clear that he was wrong". Actually the select committee report was a bit more aggressive than that - they appear at several points to be saying that it is unethical to prescribe placebos for patients per se, and the practice should possibly be banned and certainly not allowed under the NHS[1].

The phrase I've excerpted for my title is the one that set my bells off - it exactly summarises what I don't like about this approach, in dismissing the fundamental right of a patient to decide on his treatment as being some weirdo hippy shit that should be ignored by Real Men Of Science (he has a few paragraphs ridiculing the idea, which are roughly as hilarious as every other stand up comedy act on the theme of "I don't want all this choice ...").

Brass tacks. People want woo[2]. Actually, they want thoughtful, respectful and sympathetic treatment from general practitioners, but that's a) expensive and b) difficult to achieve given the social realities of the medical profession[4]. So woo is where we are now. It would be difficult and expensive to persuade the population of the UK to not believe in homeopathy, and the main consequence would be an additional burden on GPs. Since there is no special off-budget source of funds for skepticism and its consequences, this would also take money away from our household god, which we don't want to do. So we're left with:

1) on the one hand, some people who want thing X, which doesn't do them much harm compared to the comfort and enjoyment they get out of it,

2) and on the other hand, some other people who don't indulge in X themselves and are not affected materially by it, but who have a belief system and world view which makes them think that nobody should consume thing X.

We've pretty much decided on a schema for this sort of problem as a society, and the Enlightenment Values crowd can hardly object to the solution we decided on as it pretty much kept them from being burned at the stake[6] for two hundred years. That's what the government response is doing; threading the needle between endorsing woo and banning it (or putting unreasonable restrictions on people's realistic ability to get placebo treatments they want[7]), and as far as I can see the DoH response is doing so pretty sensibly.

Tidying up with some answers to questions in the Guardian piece:

You get a sense of this confusion very early on, with lines like: "given the geographical, socioeconomic and cultural diversity in England, [policy on homeopathy] involves a whole range of considerations including, but not limited to, efficacy." I actually have no idea what this means – do medicines work differently in Norfolk from the way they work in Hampshire? The report doesn't elaborate


Well, as discussed in a few comments threads here, the demand for homeopathy, and the kind of cases in which it is a good idea to practice placebo medicine, is built up in a particular set of common conditions (canonically, back pain and allergy medicine). And I would very much imagine that these conditions had geographical, socioeconomic and cultural variance.

One of the phrases Orwell that stuck with me from The Road to Wigan Pier, seems apropos here:

"The underlying motive of many Socialists, I believe, is simply a hypertrophied sense of order. The present state of affairs offends them not because it causes misery, still less because it makes freedom impossible, but because it is untidy; what they desire, basically, is to reduce the world to something resembling a chess-board"

There is certainly an equivalent motivation for people entering the medical profession and its adjuncts.




[1] This would be such a crazy thing to do, and so far out of line with normal medical practice that I suspect that either the government response has taken the select committee out of context, or that I've just got the wrong end of the stick.

[2] A fact! Of actual science! Provable by sociological and economic[3] research!

[3] Sociology and economics! Both actual sciences! In which it is often possible to support hypotheses with evidence to a much greater degree than many areas of medicine!

[4] Also a fact![5]

[5] Actually an unsupported hypothesis, but the sort of statement that could certainly be supported by evidence and achieve the same degree of certainty as the fact referenced above in footnote 2.

[6] Historians who are aware of the very limited extent to which atheists were ever persecuted (heretics, not unbelievers, were largely the ones getting burned), please forgive me for that one.

[7] I could even say "need" here, because plenty consumers of placebo remedies do need them in any sense similar to which most people you'll meet in a GP waiting room[8] need whatever medicine they get prescribed. But actually "want" is all that's necessary for my argument. Giving the people what they want isn't a 'weird fetish' - it's the whole point of the exercise.

[8] Or at least, a GP waiting room in my neck of the woods; see point about social variation above.
posted by the management 7/28/2010 07:06:00 AM 45 comments
 
A random thought about the I-Pad and I-Phone and their respective application shops[1]

Whatever else one might think about the "walled garden" approach to content and applications at Apple, at least it finally gives the lie to that assertion (beloved of excruciatingly dull cultural theorists and technofuturists wanting to put a bit of ersatz spice in their prognostications) that "porn is the driver of technological innovation".

[1]I have mentioned in the past that it's a bit twenty years ago to moan about idiosyncratic typography and neologisms in branding, but it appears that I'm in a different mood today from the mood I was in then.[2]

[2] And it's apparently quite a funny mood. "ersatz spice in their prognostications"? this is surely an unconscious parody of someone, I hope not me.

[3] By the way[4], Patient Zero of the porn-equals-progress cliche was apparently a historian called Jonathan Coopersmith. In many ways, I'm surprised and slightly disappointed that he doesn't seem to have been able to monetise it with a cash-in pop-sociology book. As is always the case, the original source material is much more interesting than the brutally oversimplified assertion it got boiled down to.

[4] I like footnotes which aren't referenced in the text. I'm afraid you're going to have to live with it.
posted by the management 7/28/2010 03:23:00 AM 14 comments

Monday, July 26, 2010

 
But if I remember to shave my forehead in the mornings, I can almost pass for a member of the Stock Exchange

Yes, well fuck you too, Rory Stewart, you may have written a pretty good book about Afghanistan, but that doesn't let you off on a first degree charge of being an arse to joskyns. As it happens, while playing with my cousins as a boy, I may have on occasion used a bit of baler twine as a makeshift belt myself on occasion, and I certainly knew people who made a habit of it. But they let me go to university, and now I am not only more or less immune from being patronised by floppy-haired tools, I am able to patronise a few of them myself! I suppose that the point is that there's a category of toff which considers Pashtun tribesmen and Penrith farmers to be more or less indistinguishable - anyone less posh than them is basically in the category "peasants", and there's no real sense in making distinctions between them any more than knowing the difference between a phytoplankton and a paramecium when looking at pond life. Ironically this is often experienced as the legendary "common touch"; the very posh indeed really do talk to their gardener in the same way they talk to a doctor.

Bonus bile: Dear Penrithians, there's no point acting all pissed off now, you knew he was a Tory when you voted for him, love, DD.
posted by the management 7/26/2010 12:56:00 AM 26 comments

Saturday, July 24, 2010

 
A point I ought to bear in mind significantly more than I usually do ...

Like most heterodox economists, I have this vague idea at the back of my mind that if people took nonergodicity, nonlinearity and similar concepts more seriously, we would have an economics that wasn't quite so polluted by laughable rationalisations of right wing deflationist bollocks.

See yesterday's Krugman blog for a classic example of why that isn't at all necessarily true. Hetecon is just as good a toolkit for justifying spurious austerity measures and tax cuts as conventional economics, unfortunately. The war will never be won, all one can do is try to minimise the casualties.

(I first noticed this a while ago; although there was massive overlap between the Progressive Economists' Network and the Post-Keynesian Thought mailing lists, the median politics of PKT were always much more conservative than those of PEN. I always wondered why, not realising for ages that it was because one list was a self-identified left-wing list and the other, well, wasn't)
posted by the management 7/24/2010 03:56:00 AM 4 comments


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